Brazil’s Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Miriam Belchior, chief of staff to the president, held a news briefing on Friday to declare that prediction markets are unlawful in the country.
The National Monetary Council (CMN) approved a resolution today detailing items permitted in the derivatives market. This specified that sports events; virtual online gaming events and actual or virtual events of a political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment, or any other kind are not regarded as permissible underlying assets for a derivatives contract.
Brazil’s national telecommunications agency Anatel has already started intervening, barring 28 platforms that offer event contracts, and will keep acting against others that appear.
The validation of prediction markets’ legal standing demonstrates that Brazil is proceeding to improve its betting regulation, Belchior explained at the gathering.
“Now, we are declaring that prediction markets will not be permitted in Brazil,” she stated. “We do not wish to expose Brazilians to hazards and monetary losses.”
Durigan stressed the government’s stance, saying it had reviewed the matter and determined that providing bets on random occurrences, such as weather conditions for instance, does not align with the laws enacted for sports betting and online gaming.
“Platforms are already being blocked to avoid uncontrolled expansion and risks to the public,” he cautioned. “Currently, 28 have already been blocked, and others that appear will face the same outcome.”
Prediction markets break Brazilian law
Since Brazil introduced its regulated online gambling market in January 2025, 39,000 unlicensed betting sites have already been blocked, Durigan said, adding that the government will adopt the same approach toward prediction market operators. “Our objective is to stop any kind of illegal betting,” he stated.
Durigan was unequivocal in asserting that the prediction market breaches the gambling law approved by Congress. “The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. The blocking action stems from non-compliance with the legislation. This market is not foreseen in the legislation, and it will not be allowed for anyone to wager on whether it will rain tomorrow or not.”
Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, stated that Brazil’s regulations aim to organize and manage an activity, as was the case with betting. “Betting that is not connected to sporting events and online games was omitted from this regulation. Any other type of betting is forbidden,” he stressed.
Betting presented as a financial instrument
“We started to see the expansion of prediction markets, which strongly resemble betting, but not as defined by law,” Dudena continued. Predictions possessed all the traits of betting, but were offered as a security risk, leading to a request for clarification on what constituted a derivative in the CMN’s view.
“In response, the CMN [National Monetary Council] excluded predictions from the scope of offerings in the market.”
Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, said fixed-odds betting is legal and regulated as a public service. “Therefore, authorized platforms must adhere to the established rules.”
Prediction markets entered Brazil to offer bets disguised as derivatives, Cardoso added. “This is illegal and has not been acknowledged by the Brazilian government,” she stated. “We have observed these platforms and identified that the dynamics are those of a bet, but not covered by Law 14.790, which only covers fixed-odds betting and online games.”
Blocking orders issued
Ricardo Morishita, national consumer secretary, took the chance to reaffirm the complete ban of the product, since prediction markets were not covered by Law 14.790 nor by the resolution of the National Monetary Council. He warned that illegal betting is a huge risk for consumers, advising players to look for regulated sites identified by the bet.br domain.
When asked if companies like Polymarket will be prevented from operating in Brazil, Regis Dudena stated that all platforms offering services not covered by the SPA or in accordance with the CMN resolution will be blocked. This indicates Kalshi, which announced plans to launch a Brazilian offering in partnership with XP International last month, also faces blocking.
“Companies that offer derivatives will be safeguarded by law, as long as they do not offer products not covered by the National Monetary Council,” he concluded.
This story was originally published in Portuguese on iGB Brasil.